Page 65 - Pig production Romania

I. Introduction

 The purpose of this document is to present the main findings of two different sets of projections that have been produced by means of
the AGMEMOD model. The first set of projections (Section II) refers to the baseline scenario, for which non-BUA (business-
as-usual) elements are not incorporated. Therefore, the potential impact of the current global African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak or
any policies that are not already implemented have not been taken into account for this set of results. However, it takes into account
that the Romania pig sector has been hit by ASF disease causing multiple outbreaks from 2017 until now.
 The second set of projections (Section III) focuses on assessing the potential effects of the ASF outbreak on the
developments on global pig production. Further details on the methodology and the assumptions adopted for this scenario are
provided in Section III.1, while the results are described in Section III.2.

African Swine Fever
African swine fever (ASF) is amongst the most important swine diseases given its severe impact with extremely high mortality rates in
domestic swine and no vaccines or treatment currently available to control its spread.

The Romanian pig sector has been hit by the ASF disease since 2017, especially in the east part of the country. According to the FAO
there have been 1,129 outbreaks in domestic pigs with 363,151 affected pigs, of which 298,562 in commercial farms and 64,589 from
backyards). Also more than 900 outbreaks in wild boars have bene identified. The number of closed outbreaks is 78 (76 in backyards
and 2 in commercial holdings).
Since 2018 numerous outbreaks of ASF were observed around the world, which created a significant disturbance of the world pig meat
market. The ASF outbreaks outside the EU are expected to reduce global pig meat output for 2019 and onward. Especially China, the
largest producer, has been severely affected (reported August 2018). In the meantime, the disease has also been detected in other
countries in Asia and Europe.

Meat production ASF National potential Regional potential Conclusions References Contact Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3 Annex 4 65