Page 44 - Pig production Romania

The impact of global ASF outbreaks on global supply and prices

 Given the extreme drop in supply of pig meat, model calculations are merely estimates, as we still apply common assumptions on e.g.
price and demand reactions on supply drop out. Substitution processes and induced preference shifts in the consumer side, as well as
new technology pushes at the producer side are not well-captured in the used modelling tools

 China has been severely affected by ASF; ASF has also been detected in other Asian regions and Europe
 The EDM simulation reveals that world market prices are expected to be around 7.1% and 12.9% above the baseline level in 2019
and 2020. This price difference will be narrowing over the coming years, with prices eventually coming back to baseline levels by 2028
 The simulation suggests that considerable decreases in global supply (consumption) are expected in 2019 and 2020 (-10.2% and
-20.9% respectively). The subsequent recovery will bring global supply (consumption) close to baseline levels by 2027 (still around
-0.3% below the baseline)
 In the EU, as a response to the increase in world pig meat prices, production of pig meat will be positively affected. Consumption
will be negatively affected.

Meat production ASF National potential Regional potential Conclusions References Contact Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3 Annex 4 44