Page 72 - Pig production Romania

II. Historical evolution and (baseline) prospects for the

Romanian sector

Summary: II.4. Conclusions
In the case of the ‘BUA’ situation, Romanian
prices (RO) are expected to follow a similar Summary and interpretation of key findings:
trend to prices in key players such as Spain Although at present prices are high due to the global ASF crisis, for the
(ES), the Netherlands (NL) and Germany (DE). long run (>5 years onward), the Romanian pig sector faces a period of
In general terms, pig meat prices are expected declining prices, in line with the dynamic of prices in international
to slightly increase until 2021 and slowly markets. At EU level, the market is about to be saturated, which
decline in the period to 2030. Nevertheless, intensifies competition and increases the sensitivity and risks related to
prices in Romania will remain high compared developments (demand, price, competitors) in the world market for pig
to other key countries in the EU, being around meat. Domestic pig meat consumption per capita is expected to
EUR 155/100kg by 2030. Outside the EU, stabilise, although there are still opportunities for domestic expansion
declining prices in the US will negatively affect since the country is not self-sufficient and relies heavily on imported
the competitiveness of the European production.
production in the international market. Since
Romania relies notably on imports of pig meat,
‘non-EU’ factors that do not lead to price
increases within the EU will not impose
considerable pressure on the country when
meeting domestic consumption.

Meat production ASF National potential Regional potential Conclusions References Contact Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3 Annex 4 72