Page 75 - Pig production Romania

III. ASF scenario

Summary: Figure 7. Prices further to an ASF outbreak in the global market (2018-2030)
The expected impact on Romania of the compared to the expectation of no ASF in South-East Asia
increased world market prices for pig meat is
limited compared to countries like Germany,
Spain and the Netherlands. The reason for Expected price differences (%)
the limited impact is that the price shocks
are limited (in any year no more than 5% 250 6
deviation of the previous baseline). This is
due to the imperfect price transmissions 5
between the world market price for pig meat 200 4
and the EU pig meat key price, as well as
that of the EU key price to the Romanian pig 150 3
meat price (about 50% of the change in the 2
German pig meat price is passed on to 100
Romania). The Romania price structure 1
further includes certain lags, which cause the 0
shock to move out a bit, which again causes 50
a dampening effect. -1
0 -2
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

RO Pig meat price (euro/100 kg) - baseline DE, ES (%) NL (%) RO (%)

Meat production ASF National potential Regional potential Conclusions References Contact Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3 Annex 4 75