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III. ASF scenario






           Summary:                                        Figure 9. Expected number of pigs present in Romania further to an ASF outbreak
           Further to the expected higher prices in the    in the global market (2018-2030)
           market, the Romanian pig (and sows)
           number of pigs is expected to increase in the
           coming years due to the ASF outbreak in
           Asia. The differences between the BUA and
           the ASF situation are larger in the period                                  Number of pigs and sows
           ending in 2024. The reader should keep in
           mind that the particular effects of AFS
           (including policy measures) in Romania are
           not captured in this analysis since they would
           require a separate modelling exercise.




















                                       Meat production  ASF  National potential  Regional potential  Conclusions  References  Contact  Annex 1  Annex 2  Annex 3  Annex 4  77
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