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III. ASF scenario

III.2. Results
Summary:
In the ASF case, the simulation reveals that Figure 6. Expected global market developments further to an ASF outbreak
world market prices are expected to be (2018-2030)
around 7.1% and 12.9% above the baseline
level in 2019 and 2020. This price difference
will be narrowing over the coming years,
with prices eventually coming back to
baseline levels by 2028. With regard to
global supply (being equal to global
demand), considerable decreases are
expected in 2019 and 2020 (-7.1% and -
14.7% respectively). These declines will be
followed by some recovery that will bring
supply, and therefore demand, close to
baseline levels by 2024 (still around -0.4%
below the baseline). 3

3 Figures 7-10 only report results for the projected period
since there is no difference between the baseline and
scenario results for the historical period (prior to 2018).

Meat production ASF National potential Regional potential Conclusions References Contact Annex 1 Annex 2 Annex 3 Annex 4 74